Brown à beira de um grande tombo

The BPIX figures for Westminster give the Conservatives 42% (-3), Labour 20% (-3) and Lib Dems 15% (-2%). That's a 22 point lead and if repeated in a general election a Tory majority in the region of 200 seats would result.

On voting intentions for the European elections, the movement away from the main parties is more pronounced. In just a week the Tories are down 6 points at 30%, UKIP is up 7% at 17% and level pegging with Labour (down 6 points). The Lib Dems are at 15%, down 1 point.

Com mais do dobro das intenções de voto, parece quase irreversível Brown derrotar Cameron nas próximas legislativas. Nas europeias, a grande surpresa pode ser o aumento de eleitos do UKIP, liderado por um dos demagogos-mor do Parlamento Europeu, Nigel Farage.

(Publicado no Câmara de Comuns)